Sales: According to the Baldwin Realtors, July residential sales decreased 21.9% year-over-year (Y/Y) from 874 to 683 closed transactions. Following seasonal trends, sales decreased 13.5% from June. Sales are down 2.1% year-to-date. Two more resources to view: Quarterly Report and Annual Report.
For all of Baldwin County’s housing data, click here.
Inventory: July listings (1,798) increased 8.3% from June and 44% from one year ago. At the current sales pace, all the active inventory on the market would sell in 2.6 months, up from 2.1 months in June and 1.4 months in July 2021. The equilibrium point where buyers and sellers have roughly equal bargaining power is 4-5 months of supply.
Pricing: The Baldwin County median sales price in July was $331,000, an increase of 13.9% from one year ago and a decrease of 3.1% from June. The differing sample size (number of residential sales of comparative months) can contribute to statistical volatility, including pricing. ACRE recommends consulting with a local real estate professional to discuss pricing, as it will vary from neighborhood to neighborhood.
Homes sold in July averaged 22 days on the market, selling 10 days faster than in July 2021.
Forecast: July sales were 125 units, or 15.5%, below the Alabama Center for Real Estate’s(ACRE) monthly forecast. ACRE projected 808 sales for the month, while actual sales were 683 units. ACRE forecast a total of 5,671 residential sales year-to-date, while there were 5,553 actual sales through July, a difference of 2.1%.
New construction: The 137 new homes sold represent 20.1% of all residential sales in July. Total sales increased 15.1% year-over-year. The median sales price for new home sales was $357,160, an increase of 22.9% from one year ago and 4.6% from June.
Statewide summary: Home sales in Alabama declined in July as rising mortgage rates sidelined some potential buyers. Sales declined 18.2% year-over-year and are down 5.6% year-to-date. Buyer demand has pulled back to pre-COVID levels with July sales 4.8% below the five-year average. Additional declines are likely in the months ahead, with a 5-10% slowdown expected from last year’s pace.
Home sales price growth moderated in July with the statewide median sales price rising 13.4% Y/Y, down from an average of 16% during the first half of the year. Following a slight pullback in June (down 0.3% month-over-month), the statewide median sales price reached an all-time high of $247,706 in July. Going forward, slowing sales and rising inventory are likely to result in home price growth moderating to the 8-10% range.
Much-needed inventory arrived in July, with statewide listings rising 8.1% from June and 24.7% from one year ago. Inventory is still relatively tight, as the 13,897 properties listed for sale is 30.9% below the five-year average of 20,120. Unsold inventory was at 2.2 months of supply, up from 1.5 one year ago.
National summary: According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales declined for the sixth consecutive month in July, falling 5.9% from June (seasonally adjusted annual rate). All four regions of the country reported month-over-month declines. Sales decreased 20.2% year-over-year.
The median sales price for all housing types increased 10.8% Y/Y to $403,800, the 125th consecutive Y/Y gain. Properties sold in an average of just 14 days, the fastest pace on record. Inventory is slowly trending upward from the lows seen during the post-pandemic housing boom. The 1,310,000 listings at the end of July increased 4.8% from June and are equal to one year ago. July’s 3.3 months of supply increased from 2.9 during June and 2.6 one year ago.
Lawrence Yun, chief economist for NAR, said, “The ongoing sales decline reflects the impact of the mortgage rate peak of 6% in early June. Home sales may soon stabilize since mortgage rates have fallen to near 5%, thereby giving an additional boost of purchasing power to home buyers.”
Yun also commented on overall market conditions, saying, “We’re witnessing a housing recession in terms of declining home sales and home building. However, it’s not a recession in home prices. Inventory remains tight and prices continue to rise nationally, with nearly 40% of homes still commanding the full list price.”
All-cash sales represented 24% of all closed sales in July, down 1% from the prior month and up from 23% one year ago. Second-home buyers and individual investors purchased 14% of July home sales, down from 16% in June and 15% one year ago.
Foreclosures and short sales accounted for approximately 1% of July transactions, essentially unchanged from June 2022 and July 2021.
Click here to view the entire monthly report.
The Baldwin County Residential Monthly Report is developed in conjunction with the Baldwin Realtors to better serve Gulf Coast consumers